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Traffic & Infrastructure

What Influence does Demographic Change have on the Development of Saxon Towns and Municipalities?

Demographic change affects the various regions and cities of Saxony differently. In particular the cities of Leipzig and Dresden can expect a slight increase in population, while numbers will noticeably fall in e.g. large parts of Eastern Saxony. The result will be a side by side of shrinking and growing regions. The population will have higher concentrations in specific centres.

Even though the population density will decrease until 2020 due to the state-wide fall in numbers, Saxony will still be a densely populated region in the context of Europe.

What will be the Effects of Demographic Change for the Housing Market?

In those regions of Saxony, where the birth rate is insufficient and there is no influx of people, household sizes will decrease. That means that the number of one- or two-people households will increase, while households with three, four or more people, i.e. the traditional family size, will continue to decrease. Overall the total number of households will decrease. The supply of living space will tend to be much higher than demand in many regions, which will mean that vacancies will continue to prevail.

In order to deal with the problem of oversupply of vacancies, living spaces will have to continue to have to be taken off the market, because vacant spaces are not economically viable.

At the same time, those parts of the housing market offerings will have to be supported, for which higher demand can be expected in the future. The increasing number of older people will for example lead to an increased demand for smaller living spaces, which are suitable to the needs of the elderly.

Will the Decrease in Population lead to a Decline in the Quality of Life?

Adjusting public infrastructures to smaller population sizes may also mean that various public general interest services currently provided will only be made available to a certain extend in some regions. The same applies for private services. Some of the effects of this development can be ameliorated with intelligent offerings, e.g. mobile services, which will provide 'food shops on wheels' on certain weekdays in municipalities, where supermarkets may have closed down years ago.

How will Local Public Transport be affected by the Decrease in Population?

In regions with declining population, a smaller customer base for local public transport is to be expected. Smaller numbers of passengers will mean increased costs for maintaining the existing network. The result will be that particularly in lesser populated, agricultural areas, busses and trains will drive less frequently per day or per week, or that the route network will simply be cut back. Alternative solutions will have to be found, particularly in order to maintain the mobility of children, teenagers, and older people in affected regions.

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